Game Preview: Sharks v Saints

Game Preview: SBS Bank Southland Sharks (7-2) v Mills Albert Wellington Saints (5-2)

The SBS Bank Southland Sharks return to ILT Stadium Southland on Thursday night for one of the biggest tests of their season, with the Mills Albert Wellington Saints arriving in Invercargill on a four-game winning streak.

The Sharks are coming off a huge 104-95 road win over the Wheeler Motor Company Canterbury Rams, a result that reinforced their place among the league’s form teams. Southland trailed by double digits during the second half, but stormed home behind Caleb Asberry, Rylan Jones, Sam Timmins and Keylan Boone to claim a major road result.

The Saints arrive with momentum of their own after grinding out an 81-71 win over the Taranaki Airs. It was not the same free-flowing offensive explosion they produced against Franklin, but Wellington still found a way to win through Elijah Pepper’s scoring, Akech Aliir’s inside presence and Carlin Davison’s all-round control.

When: Thursday 21 May, Rapid League 6.00pm, Sal’s NBL 7.00pm

Where: ILT Stadium Southland, Invercargill

Watch: Live on Sky Sport 2 in New Zealand, ESPN+ in the United States and FIBA YouTube everywhere else

Commentary: Taylah Johnson and Kayla

Box Score Here

Last Time Out

The Sharks claimed a statement 104-95 win, their sixth straight, over the Rams in Christchurch as they stormed back to claim top spot on the ladder.. Canterbury made the fast start, with Walter Brown pouring in 32 points and returning veteran René Rougeau bringing early energy, helping the Rams take a 24-20 lead after the opening quarter.

Southland responded through Asberry and Jones in the second, before Canterbury stretched the margin again during the third behind Brown and Tamenang Choh. The Rams eventually built a double-digit lead, but the Sharks stormed back with a dominant fourth quarter. Asberry’s late-game scoring, Jones’ control and Boone’s timely shot-making helped Southland finish over the top.

Canterbury Rams: Walter Brown (32p, 8r, 3a), Tamenang Choh (18p, 5r, 4a), Taylor Britt (17p, 4r, 5a), Jack Andrew (17p, 8r, 3a)

SBS Bank Southland Sharks: Caleb Asberry (33p, 3r, 1a), Sam Timmins (22p, 10r, 2a), Rylan Jones (19p, 4r, 10a), Brayden Inger (11p, 2r, 3a)

The Saints made it four wins in a row with an 81-71 victory over the Airs in Hawera. Coming off the highest-scoring game of the season, Wellington had to win a different way, with both teams struggling through a turnover-heavy opening quarter.

Pepper again provided the scoring punch, shooting efficiently on his way to 29 points, while Aliir gave the Saints a strong interior target with 19 points and 8 rebounds. Davison added 10 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals as Wellington pulled away in the fourth.

Taranaki Airs: Aaron Cook Jr. (15p, 3r, 5a, 4s), James Moors (14p, 9r), Quintin Bailey (10p, 5r, +12)

Mills Albert Wellington Saints: Elijah Pepper (29p, 8r, 3a), Akech Aliir (19p, 8r, 2a), Carlin Davison (10p, 6r, 7a, 3s)

What to Expect

Projected Starters

SBS Bank Southland Sharks

PG: Rylan Jones

SG: Tukaha Cooper

SG: Caleb Asberry

F: Brayden Inger

C: Sam Timmins

Mills Albert Wellington Saints

G: Elijah Pepper

G: Izayah Le’afa

SF: Carlin Davison

SF: Donte Ingram

F: Akech Aliir.

This is a meeting of two teams in serious rhythm. Southland has become one of the league’s most balanced groups, with Timmins anchoring the paint, Asberry stepping into elite scoring form, Jones controlling pace and Inger giving them a reliable two-way wing. The numbers show just how dominant this trio has been statistically with Asberry averaging 21.1 points on 53 percent from the field and 43 percent from three, while Timmins is at 20.9 points, 11.7 rebounds and 2.0 blocks. Jones is also filling the stat sheet with 17.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists.

The Saints bring the league’s most explosive offence while also being balanced. Pepper leads the competition at 27.0 points per game, while Davison is averaging 13.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 8.3 assists. Aliir gives them efficient frontcourt production at 15.7 points and 7.6 rebounds, Ingram adds another 15.0 points per game, and Hunt provides a major second-unit interior threat.

Southland will need to contain Pepper without over-helping and leaving Wellington’s other creators in space. The Saints will need to slow Asberry’s downhill game and keep Timmins from turning post touches and offensive rebounds into extra possessions.

Matchup to Watch: Caleb Asberry v Izayah Le’afa

Asberry has been in outstanding form, coming off 33 points against Canterbury and is Southland’s most efficient and dangerous scoring option. He has taken over games when his team needed it most but can also let go of the reins to allow his teammates to drive the action. When he is attacking off the bounce and making threes, the Sharks become extremely difficult to load up against.

Le’afa gives Wellington an elite option on both ends of the court. His scoring numbers are still building after three games, but he is averaging 8.7 assists and has one of the best assist-to-turnover profiles in the league. His defence, strength and decision-making will be important against a Sharks backcourt that has been in strong rhythm.

If Asberry wins this matchup as a scorer, Southland can put Wellington under pressure early. If Le’afa can disrupt him, control the ball and keep the Saints organised, Wellington’s offence will have a much better chance of travelling.

Matchup to Watch: Tukaha Cooper v Elijah Pepper

Pepper has been the league’s most dangerous scorer, averaging 27.0 points, 6.0 assists and a league-leading 3.3 steals per game. His range extends well beyond the arc and if pressured he can put the ball on the deck to find room at the midrange or all the way to the cup. He continues to give the Saints a player who can create runs almost entirely on his own.

Cooper’s job will not be easy, but his defensive pressure and physicality are important for Southland. He has started every game for the Sharks and gives them a guard who can compete at the point of attack, absorb contact and make scorers work across possessions. He does not need to outscore Pepper, but he does need to make every catch, drive and pull-up more difficult.

If Cooper can keep Pepper away from easy rhythm, the Sharks can stay connected defensively. If Pepper gets loose early, Wellington’s transition game and drive-kick offence can quickly open up.

Matchup to Watch: Sam Timmins v Akech Aliir

Timmins has been one of the best bigs in the Sal’s NBL and has been just as dominant statistically as he has been in the paint and he has done it all with efficiency. He sits atop the rebound and block categories for the NBL while shooting 63 percent from the field. He is the centrepiece of everything Southland does, from interior scoring to passing out of pressure and controlling the glass.

Aliir has been excellent for Wellington, averaging 15.7 points and 7.6 rebounds while shooting 55 percent from the field and 88 percent at the line. His size, rim pressure and ability to finish through contact give the Saints a strong counter inside.

If Timmins controls the paint and forces Wellington to send help, Southland’s shooters and cutters will get quality looks. If Aliir can match his physicality, run the floor and attack the rim, the Saints can stop the Sharks from owning the interior battle.

Individual Leaders

Category	SBS Bank Southland Sharks	Mills Albert Wellington Saints
Leading scorer	Caleb Asberry 21.1	Elijah Pepper 27.0
Leading rebounder	Sam Timmins 11.7	Akech Aliir 7.6
Leading assists	Rylan Jones 6.4	Izayah Le’afa 8.7
Best FG%	Sam Timmins 63%	Aubrey Chunga 63%
Best 3PT FG%	Quake Webster 53%	Hassan Munir 50%
Blocks	Sam Timmins 2.0	Jordan Hunt 1.7
Steals	Rylan Jones 2.3	Elijah Pepper 3.3
Minutes	Sam Timmins 34.4	Elijah Pepper 34.4

Stats that Matter

Stat	SBS Bank Southland Sharks	Mills Albert Wellington Saints
Points Per Game	95.2 (5th)	101.3 (1st)
Points Allowed Per Game	88.6  (3rd)	88.4 (5th)
Scoring Margin	+6.7 (3rd)	+12.9 (1st)
Field Goal %	49% (3rd)	50% (1st)
Field Goal % Defence	44% (1st)	45% (4th)
Free Throw %	66% (9th7	76% (1st)
3-Point %	35% (4th)	31% (8th)
3-Point % Defence	34% (6th)	32% (4th)
3-Point FG Made	11.6 (2nd)	10.1 (6th)
Rebounds Per Game	41.3 (7th)	44.1 (1st)
Rebounding Margin	+0.6 (7th)	+6.1 (1st)
Offensive Rebound %	29% (5th)	29% (3rd)
Defensive Rebound %	71% (9th)	75% (3rd)
Assists Per Game	21.3 (4th)	27.6 (1st)
Steals Per Game	8.0 (5th)	9.9 (1st)
Blocks Per Game	3.3 (5th)	3.9 (3rd)
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.60 (7th)	1.72 (5th)

Wellington owns the league’s best scoring offence, field goal percentage, free throw percentage, rebounding margin, assists and steals. Southland counters with a top-three scoring defence, strong shooting depth, and one of the league’s most complete bigs in Timmins.

For the Sharks, this is a chance to back up their statement win over Canterbury with another major result at ILT Stadium Southland. If Asberry stays hot, Timmins controls the paint and Jones keeps the offence organised, Southland has the balance to beat anyone.

For the Saints, this is about proving their winning run can travel against one of the league’s form teams. If Pepper bends the defence, Davison and Le’afa control the ball, and Aliir wins enough of the interior battle, Wellington has the firepower to extend its streak.