Game Preview: Sharks @ Jets

Game Preview: Property Brokers Manawatū Jets (1-5) v SBS Southland Sharks (4-2)

The Property Brokers Manawatū Jets return to the Hangar on Saturday night looking to reset after a tough southern road trip, but, in a quirk of scheduling, they will face one of the form teams in the competition for the second consecutive game.

The SBS Southland Sharks arrive in Palmerston North riding a three-game winning streak, including a big win over this very Jets team. After an undermanned slow start to the season, Southland has tightened up defensively, found more consistent production around Sam Timmins, and is settling in as a team that can find multiple paths to victories.

For the Jets, the offensive talent is there. Jamal Poplar Jr. and Kaden Sand remain one of the league’s highest-scoring duos, while Kazlo Evans Jr., Alex Holcombe, Hamza Zahran and Lukah Richards give Manawatū more than enough options to keep pace with the highest scoring teams in the league. But the challenge has been stopping runs, with the Jets currently giving up a league-high 104.5 points per game.

When: Saturday 9 May, Rapid League 6.30pm, Sal’s NBL 7.30pm

Where: Fly Palmy Arena, Palmerston North

Watch: Live on Sky Sport 3, ESPN+ in the United States and FIBA YouTube everywhere else

Commentary: Maia Williamson and Lindsay Tait

Box Score Here

Last Time Out

The Sharks picked up an 82-74 road win over the Taranaki Airs in New Plymouth to open North v South round, extending their winning streak to three games. It was a slow-starting, defence-first contest, with early turnovers and physical possessions setting the tone, but Southland eventually found separation through Rylan Jones on the perimeter and Sam Timmins down on the block.

Jones was outstanding, finishing with 25 points, 12 rebounds, 5 steals and 4 assists, while knocking down five threes and impacting the game at both ends. Timmins added 24 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks, and was determined to impact the game to start the second half, coinciding with a Sharks run that grabbed control of the contest. Brayden Inger also provided an important two-way contribution with 15 points, 7 rebounds and 3 steals and some key bombs from deep.

Taranaki had encouraging signs from its new duo just arrived from European seasons, with import Brandon Stroud scoring 21 points and kiwi James Moors adding 9 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assists before fouling out, but the Sharks’ defence, second-chance work and lifted effort to open the second half helped them end the Airs’ unbeaten home streak.

Airs: Brandon Stroud (21p, 6r, 2a, 2s), Xavier Green (14p, 6r, 2a)

Sharks: Rylan Jones (25p, 12r, 5s, 4a), Sam Timmins (24p, 9r, 3a, 2b), Brayden Inger (15p, 7r, 3s)

The Jets’ last game came against Southland last round, falling 118-100 at ILT Stadium Southland. Kaden Sand came out firing, scoring 15 points in the opening quarter to keep Manawatū in touch, but the Sharks slowed him down in the second while Caleb Asberry and Keylan Boone helped fuel the offence.

The juniors, Poplar and Evans, continued to put points on the board for the Jets, but Southland’s perimeter shooting eventually carried the game out of reach, with the Sharks hitting 19 threes and finishing with 30 assists.

Sharks: Keylan Boone (25p, 7r), Caleb Asberry (20p, 7r, 7a), Brayden Inger (23p, 5r)

Jets: Kaden Sand (25p, 5a), Jamal Poplar Jr. (21p, 8r), Kazlo Evans Jr. (18p, 7r, 7a)

What to Expect: Projected Starters

Manawatū

G: Christian McDaniel

PG: Kazlo Evans Jr.

G: Kaden Sand

F: Jamal Poplar Jr.

C: Alex Holcombe

Southland

PG: Rylan Jones

F: Brayden Inger

G: Caleb Asberry

G: Tukaha Cooper

C: Sam Timmins

The Jets will be desperate for a better defensive showing after giving up 118 points to the Sharks last time out. Their scoring has not been an issue, with Manawatū ranked sixth in the league at 91.8 points per game, but they are allowing 104.5 points per game and have struggled to contain the three-point line, with opponents making 14.2 threes per game at 37% against them so far this season.

Offensively, the Jets have the pieces to test Southland. Poplar Jr. is averaging 22.8 points and 10.2 rebounds, Sand is averaging 21.8 points while shooting 57 percent from three, and Evans Jr. has added scoring to his floor general duties at 11.0 points and 4.7 assists per game. Holcombe has also been efficient in limited action, shooting 87 percent from the field, and gives Manawatū a frontcourt option who they may look to rely on more.

Southland confidence should be high despite coming in with less than 48 hours rest. Timmins remains the anchor, averaging 21.2 points, 12.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 2.2 blocks, but the support around him has grown. Asberry is averaging 16.8 points and 4.8 assists, Boone gives the Sharks bench scoring, Jones is coming off his best game of the season, and Inger has added size, shooting and defensive activity on the wing.

Can the Jets turn this into a shot-making contest without allowing Southland to dictate the glass and tempo like they did last weekend? The Sharks are starting to look like a unit that can control the glass against and anyone and their defence seems to improve every outing, The Jets have been too porous on defence, ranking near the bottom in points allowed, and as good as their own scoring has been they would be more of a threat by taking better care of the rock. If Manawatū can keep Sand and Poplar Jr. rolling and limit Southland’s kick-out threes, the home side has a path. If the Sharks control the glass and the defensive end while Jones, Timmins and Asberry get involved early, Southland will like its chances of taking two on the North Island.

Matchup to Watch: Kazlo Evans Jr. v Rylan Jones

Evans Jr. is the Jets’ main organiser, averaging 11.0 points, 4.7 assists and 3.7 rebounds while carrying a heavy workload at nearly 33 minutes per game. Manawatū needs his decision-making to be sharp against a Sharks team that has been forcing teams into tough possessions during its winning streak. If Evans Jr. can get the Jets into early offence, find Kaden Sand and Jamal Poplar Jr. in rhythm, and limit live-ball turnovers, the Hangar will be rocking.

Jones is coming off his best performances of the season, putting up 25 points, 12 rebounds, 5 steals and 4 assists in the Sharks’ first win of the round. If he can continue to rebound from the guard spot, push in transition and pressure the ball Southland gets a major tempo advantage.

If Evans Jr. can control the pace and keep the Jets organised, Manawatū can turn this into the kind of full-court battle that lets Sand and Poplar Jr. go to work. Defensively, if he is able to limit the impact of Jones the Sharks offense may get static, allowing the d to pack the paint and slow down Timmins. If Jones disrupts the ball, by grabbing boards and forcing steals to get Southland running, the Sharks will be well placed to extend their winning streak while leaving the North Island with a 2-0 road trip.

Matchup to Watch: Jamal Poplar Jr. v Sam Timmins

Poplar Jr. has been a most consistent force, averaging 22.8 points and 10.2 rebounds while giving the Jets a scorer who can create through contact and clean the defensive glass. He has produced every game this season, and the Jets will need his physicality against one of the league’s premiere bigs.

Timmins has been just as influential, if not more, for Southland, averaging 21.2 points, 12.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 2.2 blocks. He is not just finishing inside, he is initiating offence with deep catches, sparking defensive effort by protecting the rim and creating second-chance opportunities on near every miss. His passing from the post and high elbow has opened up the Sharks’ shooters when teams decide to send more help.

If Poplar Jr. can match Timmins on the glass and keep him working defensively, Manawatū can make this game much more uncomfortable for Southland. If Timmins controls the paint again, the Sharks’ entire offence becomes easier to run.

Individual Leaders

Category	Manawatū Jets	Southland Sharks
Leading scorer	Jamal Poplar Jr. 22.8	Sam Timmins 21.2
Leading rebounder	Jamal Poplar Jr. 10.2	Sam Timmins 12.5
Leading assists	Kazlo Evans Jr. 4.7	Rylan Jones 5.7
Best FG%	Alex Holcombe 87%	Sam Timmins 64%
Best 3PT FG%	Kaden Sand 57%	Quake Webster 53%
Blocks	Poplar Jr. / Sand 0.8	Sam Timmins 2.2
Steals	Kaden Sand 1.5	Rylan Jones 2.2
Minutes	Kazlo Evans Jr. 32.9	Sam Timmins 34.3

Stats that Matter

Stat	Manawatū Jets	Southland Sharks
Points Per Game	91.8 (6th)	90.0 (8th)
Points Allowed Per Game	104.5 (11th)	88.3 (3rd)
Scoring Margin	-12.7 (11th)	+1.7 (6th)
Field Goal %	47% (6th)	47% (5th)
Field Goal % Defense	47% (5th)	44% (4th)
Free Throw %	66% (7th)	62% (9th)
3-Point %	35% (4th)	34% (5th)
3-Point % Defense	37% (10th)	35% (7th)
3-Point FG Made	8.0 (10th)	11.5 (3rd)
Rebounds Per Game	41.3 (8th)	43.7 (4th)
Rebounding Margin	-2.5 (9th)	+3.0 (3rd)
Offensive Rebound %	25% (8th)	30% (4th)
Defensive Rebound %	73% (8th)	73% (7th)
Assists Per Game	18.2 (10th)	20.7 (4th)
Steals Per Game	6.0 (11th)	7.2 (8th)
Blocks Per Game	4.0 (3rd)	3.8 (4th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.31 (10th)	1.39 (9th)

Final Word

Manawatū can score, and the Sand-Poplar Jr. combination is good enough to keep the Jets in games if they get a bit of sporadic help, but defensive consistency has been the issue. Giving up 104.5 points per game puts enormous pressure on the offence to be near-perfect.

Southland has become much harder to play against during this winning streak. The Sharks are defending at a top-three level, rebounding well, moving the ball and getting scoring from multiple levels. If they get another balanced night from Jones, Timmins, Asberry, Boone and Inger, the Sharks will have a hance to extend their streak.

For the Jets, this is about response. They saw Southland only a week ago and know exactly where the damage came from. If they can contain the arc, keep Timmins off the glass and get Sand or Poplar Jr. into a big night at home, Manawatū has enough firepower to make this a real contest.